6.25 Chelmsford, Thursday, November 24

In the Bet Tote Trifecta Handicap (6.25) at Chelmsford on Thursday, Primrose Valley has been fighting a losing battle with the handicapper since completing a four-timer on synthetic surfaces early last year, but drops into 0-85 company for the first time since winning, off today’s mark, at Kempton in January 2015. The Pastoral Pursuits filly is 13lb lower in the weights than when last winning and, while her recent performances have been less than stellar, she is undeniably well handicapped on her best form. She’s gone well after a break in the past, so an absence of 61 days is less of a worry than might otherwise be the case, and she wasn’t beaten far, off a 2lb higher mark, when last seen at Haydock in September. Back on Polytrack, she must have a decent chance if anywhere near her best, especially with talented apprentice Hector Crouch taking off 3lb.

Selection: Chelmsford 6.25 Primrose Valley to win

3.20 Wincanton, Saturday, November 5

It was my intention this week to be all over Higher Power, erstwhile ante post favourite for the November Handicap at Doncaster, but unseasonably fast ground on Town Moor has led to the withdrawal of James Fanshawe’s progressive four-year-old. Consequently, I have switched my attention to one of my favourite races of the year, the Badger Ales Trophy at Wincanton, in which the ante post favourite Southfield Theatre also appears to have an outstanding chance.

Paul Nicholls’ eight-year-old ran just four times last season, finishing tailed off last on his first two starts, being brought down in the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival and finishing fourth of 20, beaten 6¼ lengths, behind The Young Master in the bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown. It’s worth remembering that he sustained a nasty cut in his leg when finishing second to Don Poli in the RSA Chase the previous season and Paul Nicholls’ were out of form this time last year. Indeed, his trainer believed he wasn’t badly handicapped at Cheltenham off a mark of 150 and he’s down to 147, so he must have an excellent prospects for a yard with a 12-33 (36%) strike rate in the last fortnight.

Selection: Wincanton 3.20 Southfield Theatre (4/1 with Sky Bet) to win

3.30 Newmarket, Saturday, September 24

The defection of Caravaggio from the Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (3.30) at Newmarket on Saturday has left Blue Point (2.2) as the hot favourite for the Group 1 event. Charlie Appleby’s Shamardal colt has tasted defeat just once in his short career, when going down by a neck to Mehmas in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood on his penultimate start, after hanging right in the closing stages, but resumed winning ways when quickening clear to beat Mokarris by 3 lengths in the Gimcrack Stakes at York five weeks ago.

Mehmas had previously been put firmly in his place by Caravaggio in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot and subsequently proved no match for Churchill in the National Stakes, over 7 furlongs, at the Curragh last Sunday, so it would be fair to say that Aidan O’Brien has a pretty good line to the form. The Master of Ballydoyle has entered both Intelligence Cross, third in the Richmond Stakes, and Peace Envoy, a never-nearer third of five, beaten a length, behind Lady Aurelia in the Prix Morny at Deauville last month.

Intelligence Cross was disappointing in the Richmond Stakes, but had previously been beaten just half a length by Mehmas in the July Stakes at Newmarket and easily won the Round Tower Stakes at the Curragh last month, while Peace Envoy arguably has the best single piece of form in the race, on paper, and appears to have been underestimated by the bookmakers. To cut a long story short, three or four of these appeal as likely winners, so laying Blue Point, at the shortest price available, on Betfair is the recommended play this week, provided Mehmas, Intelligence Cross and Peace Envoy all stand their ground at the final declaration stage on Thursday.

3.40 York, Wednesday, August 17

The 3.40 at York on Wednesday is a two horse race, if the ante post betting is to be believed but, with doubts about the front pair, there may be some value in backing Highland Reel. Ante post favourite Postponed was forced to miss the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes with respiratory illness and returns to action after a 74-day break, while second favourite Hawkbill has never run, never mind won, on ground faster than good to soft on turf.

By contrast, Highland Reel loves to hear his hooves rattle and comes into the race at the top of his game, having stayed on well to beat Derby fourth Wings Of Desire by 1¼ lengths in the King George last month. Dropping back to 1 mile 2 furlongs should do his chances no harm and, with the going on the Knavesmire currently good to firm and dry, sunny weather forecast between now and Wednesday afternoon, he should be in his element.

Selection: York 3.40 Highland Reel to win