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Monday, 15 August 2016

3.40 York, Wednesday, August 17


The 3.40 at York on Wednesday is a two horse race, if the ante post betting is to be believed but, with doubts about the front pair, there may be some value in backing Highland Reel. Ante post favourite Postponed was forced to miss the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes with respiratory illness and returns to action after a 74-day break, while second favourite Hawkbill has never run, never mind won, on ground faster than good to soft on turf.

By contrast, Highland Reel loves to hear his hooves rattle and comes into the race at the top of his game, having stayed on well to beat Derby fourth Wings Of Desire by 1¼ lengths in the King George last month. Dropping back to 1 mile 2 furlongs should do his chances no harm and, with the going on the Knavesmire currently good to firm and dry, sunny weather forecast between now and Wednesday afternoon, he should be in his element.

Selection: York 3.40 Highland Reel to win

Wednesday, 6 July 2016

3.15 Newmarket, Thursday, July 7


In the 3.15 at Newmarket on Thursday, Exosphere is on a retrieval mission after trailing in eighth of nine, beaten 19 lengths, behind stable companion Dartmouth in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot last month. Sir Michael Stoute’s 4-year-old had previously beaten Simple Verse in convincing style at Newmarket, on going officially described as ‘good to soft’ but, at Ascot, the trainer’s representative reported that Exosphere was unsuited by the good to soft ground, which was too soft on that occasion.

The going on the July Course is currently good to firm, with drying conditions forecast for the immediate future, so Exosphere, who won on good and good to firm going as a 3-year-old, should have no such excuse this time. If he can return to the form that saw him readily draw clear in the closing stages to beat Simple Verse by 4 lengths in the Jockey Club Stakes, over 1 mile 4 furlongs on the Rowley Mile Course, in April, he looks a worthy favourite. The Grey Gatsby, who was winless last season, but ran creditably in defeat at the highest level on all five starts, provides stiff opposition, but at around 11/4 in the early price lists Exosphere looks the one to be on.

Selection: Newmarket 3.15 Exosphere (11/4 generally available)

Tuesday, 21 June 2016

4.40 Carlisle, Wednesday, June 22


In the 4.40 Carlisle on Wednesday, Masterpaver was only just touched off on his hat-trick attempt, in a lady amateur riders’ event over 1 mile 4 furlongs at York 11 days ago and, reunited with Tony Hamilton, may be able to regain the winning thread. The Mastercraftsman gelding has been raised a further 4lb in the weights, but drops back into 0-85 company and is equally effective at this slightly shorter distance. Prior to joining Richard Fahey in April, he had been campaigned largely on synthetic surfaces for much of his career, but has taken advantage of his much lower turf mark since joining his new yard. Even so, he remains 10lb lower in the weights than when winning over 1 mile 6 furlongs on the Tapeta at Wolverhampton two seasons ago, so it’s difficult to argue that he’s not well handicapped. He appears versatile with regard to underfoot conditions, so should run his race whatever the weather in Cumbria.

Selections: Carlisle 4.40 Masterpaver to win

Wednesday, 1 June 2016

Investec Diomed Stakes, 3.10 Epsom, Friday, June 3


In the Investec Diomed Stakes (3.10) at Epsom on Friday, Arod was little disappointing when beaten in a Listed race at Ascot on his seasonal reappearance in April, but was entitled to need that run – his first since last November – and can resume winning ways. Peter Chapple-Hyam’s 5-year-old escapes a Group 2 penalty and, having comfortably beaten Custom Cut by 2 lengths in this race last year, should have no problem with the idiosyncrasies of Epsom.

His second, beaten just half a length, behind Solow in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood last July is far and away the best single piece of form on offer and, provided his fruitless trip to Australia last autumn hasn’t done any lasting damage, he must take a world of beating here. He’s yet to race on going slower than good to soft, so possibly doesn’t want too much rain, but otherwise had plenty going for him. At 5/2 with Stan James in the ante post market, Arod looks a decent bet to repeat last year’s win.

Selection: Epsom 3.10 Arod (5/2 with Stan James) to win