3.30 Newmarket, Saturday, September 24

The defection of Caravaggio from the Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (3.30) at Newmarket on Saturday has left Blue Point (2.2) as the hot favourite for the Group 1 event. Charlie Appleby’s Shamardal colt has tasted defeat just once in his short career, when going down by a neck to Mehmas in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood on his penultimate start, after hanging right in the closing stages, but resumed winning ways when quickening clear to beat Mokarris by 3 lengths in the Gimcrack Stakes at York five weeks ago.

Mehmas had previously been put firmly in his place by Caravaggio in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot and subsequently proved no match for Churchill in the National Stakes, over 7 furlongs, at the Curragh last Sunday, so it would be fair to say that Aidan O’Brien has a pretty good line to the form. The Master of Ballydoyle has entered both Intelligence Cross, third in the Richmond Stakes, and Peace Envoy, a never-nearer third of five, beaten a length, behind Lady Aurelia in the Prix Morny at Deauville last month.

Intelligence Cross was disappointing in the Richmond Stakes, but had previously been beaten just half a length by Mehmas in the July Stakes at Newmarket and easily won the Round Tower Stakes at the Curragh last month, while Peace Envoy arguably has the best single piece of form in the race, on paper, and appears to have been underestimated by the bookmakers. To cut a long story short, three or four of these appeal as likely winners, so laying Blue Point, at the shortest price available, on Betfair is the recommended play this week, provided Mehmas, Intelligence Cross and Peace Envoy all stand their ground at the final declaration stage on Thursday.

3.40 York, Wednesday, August 17

The 3.40 at York on Wednesday is a two horse race, if the ante post betting is to be believed but, with doubts about the front pair, there may be some value in backing Highland Reel. Ante post favourite Postponed was forced to miss the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes with respiratory illness and returns to action after a 74-day break, while second favourite Hawkbill has never run, never mind won, on ground faster than good to soft on turf.

By contrast, Highland Reel loves to hear his hooves rattle and comes into the race at the top of his game, having stayed on well to beat Derby fourth Wings Of Desire by 1¼ lengths in the King George last month. Dropping back to 1 mile 2 furlongs should do his chances no harm and, with the going on the Knavesmire currently good to firm and dry, sunny weather forecast between now and Wednesday afternoon, he should be in his element.

Selection: York 3.40 Highland Reel to win

3.15 Newmarket, Thursday, July 7

In the 3.15 at Newmarket on Thursday, Exosphere is on a retrieval mission after trailing in eighth of nine, beaten 19 lengths, behind stable companion Dartmouth in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot last month. Sir Michael Stoute’s 4-year-old had previously beaten Simple Verse in convincing style at Newmarket, on going officially described as ‘good to soft’ but, at Ascot, the trainer’s representative reported that Exosphere was unsuited by the good to soft ground, which was too soft on that occasion.

The going on the July Course is currently good to firm, with drying conditions forecast for the immediate future, so Exosphere, who won on good and good to firm going as a 3-year-old, should have no such excuse this time. If he can return to the form that saw him readily draw clear in the closing stages to beat Simple Verse by 4 lengths in the Jockey Club Stakes, over 1 mile 4 furlongs on the Rowley Mile Course, in April, he looks a worthy favourite. The Grey Gatsby, who was winless last season, but ran creditably in defeat at the highest level on all five starts, provides stiff opposition, but at around 11/4 in the early price lists Exosphere looks the one to be on.

Selection: Newmarket 3.15 Exosphere (11/4 generally available)

4.40 Carlisle, Wednesday, June 22

In the 4.40 Carlisle on Wednesday, Masterpaver was only just touched off on his hat-trick attempt, in a lady amateur riders’ event over 1 mile 4 furlongs at York 11 days ago and, reunited with Tony Hamilton, may be able to regain the winning thread. The Mastercraftsman gelding has been raised a further 4lb in the weights, but drops back into 0-85 company and is equally effective at this slightly shorter distance. Prior to joining Richard Fahey in April, he had been campaigned largely on synthetic surfaces for much of his career, but has taken advantage of his much lower turf mark since joining his new yard. Even so, he remains 10lb lower in the weights than when winning over 1 mile 6 furlongs on the Tapeta at Wolverhampton two seasons ago, so it’s difficult to argue that he’s not well handicapped. He appears versatile with regard to underfoot conditions, so should run his race whatever the weather in Cumbria.

Selections: Carlisle 4.40 Masterpaver to win